Actuarial and Data Analytics

Providing information and advice on real problems

NCAA 2016 Tourney

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Every year in March, millions of people enter the world of forecasting and predicting.  That’s right, I am talking about the NCAA 2016 Tourney.  Most of us typically fill out our brackets based on our favorite schools, what teams have been successful in the past, and information gathered from various sports fanatics.  To make things interesting, I have filled out my bracket using various Machine Learning (ML) models (Random Forest, Earth, and SVM).

Instead of picking schools I believe will do well, I simply let the data speak for itself.  Various characteristics were included, such as seed ranking, win-loss record, and other stats gathered from the web.

With that, attached are my three bracket outcomes with model probabilities derived from the data via three different ML models.

We will see if this was a wasted effort, or whether I should make sports betting a career 🙂









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